U.S., Iran Trade Strikes in Strait of Hormuz as Both Battle on Social Media

CENTCOM image released Sept. 1, 2026.

U.S.Central Command forces struck three Iranian crude oil carriers Saturday, the recent in a series of U.S. strikes on Iranian targets.

The strikes on the tankers came after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles toward an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer. The U.S. warships evaded the missiles, and no personnel were harmed.

CENTCOM forces permanently disabled MT Downy (IMO: 9218480) off the coast of Kharg Island and MT Stark 1 (IMO: 9171450) off the coast of Jask, Iran. Both fly Iranian flags. CENTCOM also struck MT Kylo (IMO: 9189146) in multiple locations in the Gulf of Oman, causing the crew to abandon the vessel. Kylo flies a Comoros flag.

In a Tuesday video published by U.S. Central Command on the social media site X, the U.S. military announced that it hit a number of Iranian targets, including two unidentified ships. When asked for additional details, including whether the ships were docked or the names of the vessels, a command spokesman USNI News to the CENTCOM post.

Iran struck at least 13 commercial vessels in August, the most recent of which – a Monday attack on crude oil tanker MT Sidr (IMO: 9854715) – left two seafarers dead.

It is not clear yet what effect the recent attacks will have on transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Transit data has lagged by a week since many ships have turned off their automatic identification systems for the passage, meaning maritime analysts find out a ship transited only after the fact.

Between Aug. 24 and Sunday, transits dropped slightly from the previous week. Aug. 17 to Aug. 23 saw the highest number of transits since the memorandum of understanding broke down between Iran and the U.S., although transit levels are still a far cry from before the war began on Feb. 27, according to London-based Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Non-Iranian-linked traffic saw highs the past week, with a 60 percent increase over the previous week, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Despite the increase in transits, the shipping industry is still experiencing a “peak disruption,” Richard Meade, editor of Lloyd’s List said during a Thursday webinar.

The oil industry has found workarounds, including rerouting oil to the pipeline in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, Meade said. That pipeline, however, faces risks from the Houthis who have followed through on their maritime blockade of ships linked to Saudi Arabia.

Ships are also making dark transits, then using ship-to-ship transfers to get oil out of the Persian Gulf, he said.

Some companies like Adnoc are continuing shuttle runs, mainly dark, through the Strait of Hormuz, Meade said. Many of the ships involved are state-subsidized by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, Campbell University professor Sal Mercogliano told USNI News. These ships can take on some risk because they have state backing.

“But there will be a point when the risk could become too great and even the state-operated companies or the commercial companies will balk and not want to run through,” Mercogliano said.

If Iran continues to hit vessels, especially if it kills seafarers or sinks ships, the appetite for risk could decrease, he said.

How Much Oil is Getting Through?

Strait of Hormuz traffic on Sept. 4, 2026. Marine Traffic map The U.S. has been touting the number of barrels of oil per day making it through the strait. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said 10 million barrels are making it through each day, with 15 to 17 million barrels passing through on Tuesday.

By the end of August, prior to the latest escalation, much more crude was moving than earlier this year, but likely much less than the volume claimed by Washington, Chris Newton, senior early warning analyst with International Crisis Group, told USNI News.

In August, about 5 to 7 million barrels of crude oil per day made it through the strait, an upward trend from earlier in the war, Newton said, based on analysis from the shipping industry and other market intelligence firms.

Mercogliano said that the crude oil getting through the strait is about two-thirds to three-fourths of pre-war levels, plus any Iranian oil that might have gotten past the U.S. naval blockade.

While the U.S. should have the best data because it has eyes on the barrels moving, the Trump administration is selective about what numbers it releases, he said.

“The problem is that if you sit there and say, well, 15 million barrels came out today, that’s a very narrow snapshot,” Mercogliano said. “You really have to do kind of a seven-day average because there’s going to be peaks on this.”

The Trump administration has also publicized the number of ships sailing through the strait, but lagging data from companies like Lloyd’s List Intelligence makes those claims difficult to check, Mercogliano said.

Between Sept. 1 and 2, the U.S. facilitated 44 transits, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, a service of the Combined Maritime Force. The U.S. facilitated 39 transits between Aug. 30 and 31. The daily average was 138 vessel transits before the current war.

U.S.-facilitated transits have varied widely. As an example, Aug. 27 to 29 saw 65, while Aug. 25 to 26 saw 37.

The JMIC numbers, which use U.S. Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping data, do not match up with the Trump administration numbers either, which have claimed 30 to 40 ships are transiting daily.

“Independent tracking data indicated suppression with single-digit numbers transiting in both directions, while US NCAGS data indicated traffic flows averaging over 20 vessel transits per day for the last week,” reads the JMIC from Thursday.

The JMIC advisories from late August and early September also warn mariners about potential uncharted or drifting mines. CENTCOM head Adm. Brad Cooper announced last week that the U.S. cleared out the mines from the area.

War Over Narrative

Iran may have launched its most recent attacks because Tehran feels its control over the strait slipping away, along with its main leverage in negotiations, Newton said.

Though oil exports might not be as high as the Trump administration claims, before the latest hostilities, there were still more barrels of oil and overall ship transits flowing through Hormuz than at the beginning of the war, which poked holes in Iran’s closed strait narrative, he said.

Average barrels transiting per day approached 7 million toward the end of August. Other Gulf states and Iraq have been able to send crude via shuttle runs, Newton said.

As the U.S. boasted about growing numbers, Iran either had to escalate or risk conceding its influence over the strait, which would erode its negotiating power, Newton said.

Increased Iranian attacks on tankers then led the U.S. to escalate in turn.

“It fits the pattern we’ve seen for six months now,” Newton said. ”When the public narrative starts to shift pretty hard against Iran in terms of who controls who moves and to what extent, Iran has usually escalated.”

The Iranian regime is determined to maintain its power at all costs, Neil Atkinson, energy analyst and senior fellow with National Center for Energy Analytics, said during Thursday’s Lloyd’s List webinar.

“Iran has had a remarkable ability since the end of February to confound expectations about – in terms of how resilient it is, and confound expectations in terms of its ability to fight war,” he said.

Tehran is taking the approach of sitting back and seeing if the U.S. will tire itself out with the war, Atkinson said. The Iranian regime is also watching the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. and figuring out how it can inflict the most pain on the Trump administration.

The global market is relying on workarounds shipping and oil companies have carved out under difficult conditions, Meade said.

However, the months of reduced transits have whittled down global supply. The recent increase in barrels transiting is needed to build back that stockpile, Mercogliano said.

Global stocks for many countries have been drawn down because of the Hormuz crisis, Atkinson said.

Crude oil needs to be refined, Atkinson said, and global refinery capacity is stretched due to both the Iranian attacks on refineries in gulf states and Ukrainian attacks on Russia.

“So the global refining system is having to work flat-out to make sure there is plenty of oil product available to the market, but these products are costing more and more money,” Atkinson said. “And this cannot go on forever because, unless demand really does fall off a cliff in reaction to higher prices, we are in a situation where the system will continue to be stretched.”

The new U.S.-Venezuela deal is not likely to have much short-term effect, since it focuses on a 25-year timeframe, Atkinson said.

The global oil situation is fragile and could easily shift, Mercogliano said. A natural disaster like a hurricane or a geopolitical problem in another part of the world could change the global supply from low but sustainable to critical again.

“That’s the danger when you’re this low,” Mercogliano said. “You can drive your car on a quarter tank of gas, but you gotta be sure there’s a gas station close by. You’re fine, but if there’s no gas station, then you’re in trouble. And that’s kind of what we’re doing.”

China is pulling more oil from the global supply as it attempts to restock its storage, which adds an additional strain, Mercogliano said.

While much of the attention is on the Strait of Hormuz, the pressure on the global oil supply is exacerbated by the Russo-Ukraine War. Both Russia and Ukraine have gone after oil supply and refineries as part of their strategies.

And on top of the fragile system, the Panama Canal is having water issues, potentially causing another blockage, Mercogliano said. And it’s nearly hurricane season in the Atlantic.

“It seems like every minute we turn around, there’s another issue,” he said.