Hormuz Traffic Levels Continue Decreasing, Houthis in Yemen Threaten Saudi Tankers

Strait of Hormuz traffic on July 31, 2026. Marine Traffic map Traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz last week dropped yet again, bringing the flow of ships through the Middle East passageway to levels not seen since March, shortly after the conflict between Iran and the United States began.

Transits were down 52.4 percent between July 20 and Sunday from July 13-19, according to London-based Lloyd’s List Intelligence. From July 19 to Sunday, daily transits were in the single digits, with only two transits on July 23 and on Saturday.

While transits are down, the actual number of daily passages could be slightly higher as Lloyd’s List Intelligence confirms ships that went through the strait without their automatic identification systems on, Lloyd’s List Intelligence Maritime Intelligence & Research Director Bridget Diakun said during a Thursday webinar.

Despite the continued rise in tensions between Washington and Tehran, ship owners continue to send ships through the contested passageway, Diakun said.

“Things change,” Diakun said. “Things change quite quickly. If there are any credible positive developments at a geopolitical level, this picture will change immediately, and we’ll see, not a resurgence, but more ships going through.”

This week, Tehran rejected an Omani proposal that would give shared governance of the Strait of Hormuz to the two countries. Instead, Iran is seeking a long-term settlement that includes a dominant Iranian role in strait management, Lloyd’s List Editor–in-Chief Richard Meade wrote for the news organization.

Even if a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. is put in place, it might not reopen the strait, Meade wrote. Instead, Tehran has signaled that it wants to further negotiate over the strait after the war ends.

As the conflict drags into its sixth month, the shipping industry is struggling to meet the rising demands for crude oil.

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Rafael Peralta (DDG-115) enforces a maritime blockade against an Iranian-flagged ship attempting to sail toward an Iranian port, April 24, 2026. US Navy photo Mainstream shipping is avoiding the Persian Gulf, Diakun said. This has resulted in “shadow fleet” vessels – ships that use deceptive measures to avoid detection – are flipping into mainstream trades where they load up compliant barrels rather than sanctioned oil, she said. Lloyd’s List Intelligence has tracked 30 liquified natural gas carriers that have flipped into the mainstream trade.

United Arab Emirates tankers are in such demand that used very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are being bought for prices of new builds and then sent through the Strait of Hormuz without AIS, Meade said during Thursday’s webinar.

Meade previously warned that what happens in the Strait of Hormuz would not stay there, and this past week saw the continued convergence of several troubles in maritime passageways.

Ukraine and Russia continue to trade maritime attacks, including attacks on commercial ships. While farther from the Middle East conflicts, the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War continues to add strain on the global market. Russia is also helping the Houthis, while Iran provides Russia with drones to use against Ukraine, Ian Ralby, CEO of IR Consilium, said on the Thursday webinar.

The Houthis have continued a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. Tankers that load from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port, Yanbu, are taking lighter loads to pass through the Suez Canal rather than risk transit through the Bab El-Mandeb, Meade said.

“All the Caspian strikes, all the drone attacks at the [liquefied natural gas] facility in Egypt, all these surging war risk premiums, the extended danger zone from the Joint War Risk Committee earlier today – the list goes on,” Meade said Thursday. “The point I’m making here is that we are no longer dealing with a single issue here. Shipping’s freight markets are now a game of three-dimensional geopolitical chess.”

The Houthis continue to be a threat to shipping, particularly tankers, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data. There were 225 transits between July 20 and Sunday, down from 311 the previous week.

While the U.S. and Israel may have reduced the Houthi missile and drone supply, they are still able to attack ships, according to Ralby.

“We need to remember that if you want to disrupt maritime commerce, you don’t need much,” Ralby said.

Houthi Anti-Ship Missiles The Houthis learned from their campaign against shipping in the Red Sea between 2023 and 2025, when they attacked ships the group said were linked to Israel or the U.S. They know that the cheaper, lower technology that hits below the waterline is more effective at hitting a ship than missiles, he said.

“The missiles got international attention,” he said. “The sinking of a ship got much more maritime impact.”

The U.S. stopped Operation Rough Rider, the bombing campaign against the Houthis, in May 2025 following a ceasefire between the U.S. and the Houthis. That has allowed them to restock, Ralby said.

While the Houthis have shown restraint – not wading into the current conflict until the past two weeks and then with a much lesser approach than before – it could be because they are allowing some of their allies to take on the fight while they build for something bigger, Ralby said.

Iran and the Houthis have a different way of measuring success than the U.S., Ralby said. They look at strategic success whereas the U.S. has started to focus on tactical triumphs.

He pointed to Prosperity Guardian and Operation Rough Rider – efforts under the Biden and Trump administrations to stop the Houthis – as examples where the U.S. focused on what missiles or drones its forces brought down while the Houthis focused on closing off the Red Sea.

“Their capacity is more about their will,” Ralby said. “And right now, their will is to choke off maritime commerce and oil commerce for one of the largest producers of oil in the world. So that’s a problem because the ways they could do that keep expanding, and every time we try to make a new chokepoint, whether it’s a pipeline, a canal or something else, it just puts a target on it for that situation.”